Only one in ten Ukrainians wants to return
Ukraine, Integration
5 Feb 2026
February marks four years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Around 83,000 Ukrainians now live in Norway under temporary protection. A new survey shows shifting intentions: nearly half do not plan to return even if peace comes, a third hope to bring more family members, and only one in ten wishes to return home.
Why more are choosing to stay
According to senior researcher Vilde Hernes at the OsloMet-based NIBR institute, those who have lived longest in Norway are now less likely to consider returning compared with more recent arrivals.
Parents, especially, express deep concern about exposing their children to yet another move and an uncertain future in Ukraine. Stronger Norwegian language skills, economic improvement compared to life before the war, and positive social integration are among the main factors encouraging people to remain.
Many are also unsure whether they would have a home to return to, fear an unstable peace, or expect a society marked by conflict after the war.
Who plans to return?
Only 11 percent intend to return as soon as the war ends. This is far fewer than Ukraine will need for reconstruction. Those without relevant work in Norway or without a meaningful social network are most likely to consider going back.
Patterns also differ across groups:
– Fewer men than women want to return.
– The oldest and youngest adult groups are more open to return than those in mid-life.
– Those with close family still in Ukraine are more likely to consider going home.
Yet many emphasize that their decision ultimately depends on how conditions develop in both countries over time.
New restrictions affect return plans
In 2023, Norway introduced two significant restrictions: a sharp limitation on temporary visits to Ukraine and reduced access to collective protection for people from “safe zones.” These rules set Norway apart from other European countries.
Many Ukrainians view the travel ban as both emotionally and practically harmful. They argue that short visits would allow them to gradually rebuild connections in Ukraine before any permanent return, an approach they see as essential for long-term reintegration.
A recurring challenge is the temporary nature of collective protection. Many refugees feel uncertainty about their long-term status and describe a growing gap between their legal position in Norway and their sense of belonging. Still, half plan to apply for a work-based residence permit once eligible.
Trust also plays a role. Ukrainians in Norway tend to express very high trust in the Norwegian political system and very low trust in Ukrainian governance structures. Many hope for a “new Ukraine” built on stability, fairness, and lower corruption – values they have come to expect after years in Norway.
What would make return more likely?
The refugees largely agree on one point: the most important factor for encouraging return is not financial support for individual families, but strong international backing for Ukraine’s political and economic reconstruction.
