What symbolizes this wreckage in the Finnish press are the so-called bread lines (leipäjonot) in which society’s poorest stand and wait for handouts (Römpötti, 2014). Public spending cuts were reported in all sectors, also in culture and art (Saarikoski, 2016). The supragenerational nature of the WFS figured both in its success stories and as framing worrying trends. In a public discussion on the decreasing Finnish nativity, this supragenerational nature of the Nordic WFS was acknowledged by stressing that it may soon be running into trouble (Siltamäki, 2019). The same press story emphasized that unless new taxpayers turn up in sufficient numbers, the funding base will descend into crisis. An editorial in the Helsingin Sanomat called for a value discussion (arvokeskustelu) and presented an alarming picture: “Finland is ageing more rapidly than most other Western countries. At the same time the birth rate has dropped to an exceptionally low level. How can the funding of the welfare society be safeguarded in this situation?” (HS, 2018.) Both the portrayal of the severity of the situation and its solution were framed as a watershed issue between the political right and left. In the words of a right-wing politician, the Social Democrats do not understand the need for systemic change: “The Nordic welfare state model is not a collection of invariable institutions such as 100% public health centres, centrally mandated, across-the-board pay increases, carved-in-stone retirement ages, constant unchangeable social security benefits, or industries protected against competition.” (Palojärvi, 2016a.) Time and again in the media items, the general public is reminded that the Finnish welfare system depends on working people who have to foot the bill for service provision (Hämäläinen, 2019a). Under the centre-right government of Juha Sipilä in 2015–2019, the political right-wing faction saw public austerity policies as part of a solution to the growing dependency ratio. In the Finnish data that covers these years, the dependency ratio appears as a threat on both sides of the political divide. For those on the left, the austerity policy and the marketization of welfare services represent the biggest threat to the WFS: “the welfare state is being run down” (Arola & Nalbantoglu, 2018); “welfare is partly dead already” (Hämäläinen, 2019b):
The welfare state used to be based on everyone participating in the [WFS] building project. Now that the society’s safety net is nearly gone, we no longer have the kind of common good that work can produce. The value produced in workplaces slips away to business managers and foreign banks through the stock exchange. (Kytölä, 2016.)
Media stories on the successes and achievements of the WFS are more prevalent in the Finnish material (28%) in comparison to the three other countries’ corpuses. “Finland is the world’s safest country”, says a Hufvudstadsbladet article (Landor, 2019). An editorial argues that “Everyone agrees welfare society is a good deal” (HS, 2017). Time after time it is observed that the Nordic model is superior (e.g. Berg, 2018). “No system is perfect, but ours is a pretty good one”, concludes an editorial in the Hufvudstadsbladet (Ginman, 2015).
Within the framing of success, the WFS is portrayed as a fortunate circumstance for citizens. In an HS interview with Rajkumar Sabanadesan, a Sri Lankan who arrived in Finland as a refugee 25 years ago, he is quoted as being “particularly grateful that he came to a Nordic welfare state”, which guarantees the universal right to education and healthcare. He exemplifies: “Our son recently had pneumonia and then developed a collapsed lung. He received excellent care worth tens of thousands of euros at Tampere university hospital, but the cost to our family was only some 40 euros a day.” (Vainio, 2020.) In her interview with HS, the terminally ill politician Maarit Feldt-Ranta looks back at her life and notes:
Without the Nordic welfare society my life would have been completely different from what it was. This ethos of equality of opportunity is mind-blowing /--/ The Nordic welfare state, the people’s home, this is the greatest thing that any society anywhere in the world has created. The decision on comprehensive schooling is the best decision that Finland has made in its 100-year history. In politics I’ve always thought of each decision-making in terms of its implications for the welfare society. Will it improve, cherish, endanger it? (Pallaste, 2019)
In the Finnish material, being born in a welfare state/society was portrayed as a winning lottery ticket or as an opportunity to be grateful for. A left-wing politician who comes from a working-class family in Oulu has this to say: “Life was always tight for us financially, but the welfare society enabled me to have an education. I hope this will be possible for youngsters in the future as well.” (Räisänen, 2019.) Pirkko Mattila, a newly appointed Minister of Social Affairs and Health, says she represents what the Nordic WFS can produce: “Perhaps my life is an illustration of what’s worth defending: I represent regional equality, I’ve had schooling, received child welfare benefits, I’ve enjoyed free health care and education free of charge” (Palojärvi, 2016b).
Even if the solutions to the challenges of the growing dependency ratio were a partisan and politicized WFS question, the value of welfare per se seems to gather great consensus over the political spectrum. Conservative politician Petteri Orpo says he has “great respect for welfare society, equal services, equality of opportunity, and a safe society” (Junkkari, 2018). “We must not let the welfare society collapse”, the Swedish People’s Party demanded ahead of the previous government programme (Pohjanpalo, 2015). Former President of the Republic, Social Democrat Martti Ahtisaari, wants to see the Nordic model exported globally (Sipilä, 2014), and Li Andersson, leader of the Left Alliance, is cited during a visit to New York: “The Nordic model has time and again demonstrated its strength and its success in international comparison” (Östling, 2019).
Even though WFS is in part represented as a great leveller, there are less frequent examples in the Finnish material than in the Swedish dataset, for instance (discussed later). An article on how politicians interpret the meaning of poverty (Viljamaa & Raeste, 2015) observes that a fair tax system based on the ability to pay reduces income differentials and spreads out welfare. It also helps to maintain such key structures of welfare society as welfare services and social security. “We should be proud and defend the Nordic welfare state that aims to reduce social differences and to give every individual the best possible foundation for life”, says the leader of the Swedish People’s Party. (Viljamaa & Raeste, 2015.) Antti Rinne, leader of the Social Democratic Party, speaks about a friend who got cash from social security in order to buy a pram: “This was what the young family needed, and at the time they didn’t have the money. This is what welfare society has been created for: it provides support when support is needed and helps people back on their feet”, Rinne writes. (Peurakoski, 2014.)
Norway
In the analysis of the Norwegian stories of WFS-related threats and successes, I discerned overlapping meaning-making categories of developments that needs attention; sustainable welfare; out of money; better than other systems; and other (e.g. climate, business development, immigration).
Well over half of the Norwegian texts (51/85; 60%) portrayed the WFS as being under threat or in need of salvation, or at least readjustment. Dagsavisen cites a left-wing politician: “The welfare state is being dismantled at record pace” (Vestveit, 2019). On several occasions the WFS is argued as being “at risk” (e.g. Askilsrud, 2019 in the local newspaper Ringerikes Blad). In the Norwegian material, too, the dependency ratio plays a central role. A letter to the editor in Østlands-Posten says that the “underfunded welfare state” has to come to terms with dwindling oil revenue, while “nursing homes will soon see their expenses spiral” (Melleby, 2019). The core problem of there being “more and more elderly people and fewer young people” is recognized in a union organization journal (Madssen, 2019).
The developments call for a need to work towards a “sustainable welfare state”. This concept is mentioned over 30 times in the Norwegian material (bærekraftig literally means “strong enough to hold”). Coined by Erna Solberg, Prime Minister from the conservative Høyre party, a “sustainable welfare state” appeared in different variants throughout the dataset (e.g. bærekraftig velferd in Lunde, 2019; also berekraftig velferd; et bærekraftig Norden in Galtung and Poleszynski, 2020; and et bærekraftig og sterkt velferdssamfunn in Orten, 2020). The use and connotations of this term, such as describing the WFS as becoming weaker or collapsing, also attracted some criticism. In a piece in Dagbladet, the term is denounced as code for the governments’ bærekraftsbløff – sustainability bluff (Kristjánsson, 2019).
Concerns about the survival, sustainability, and strength of the WFS mostly revolved around the funding of the services, and can be summarized in the expression of “being out of money”, much used to describe the decreasing pot of oil money at the disposal of the state of Norway. The sustainability of the bærekraftig WFS must be ensured without leaving it to future generations to foot the bill (Nyland, 2020). In a reply to a letter to the editor in the multicultural journal Utrop, migration is portrayed as a threat to the welfare of the nation state’s citizens (Fosli, 2020). A sustainable WFS needs to enforce a restrictive migration policy, says Høyre politician Torbjørn Røe Isaksen in a chronicle in the online newspaper Nettavisen (Isaksen, 2018). While representatives of Høyre see that migration is required in order to guarantee the survival of the WFS, they stress that migrants have to be installed in jobs and occupations where they are really needed (Sanner, 2019). “We need migrants’, announces Folkebladet, proceeding to paint a threatening scenario (Henriksen, 2019): “And when parts of a well-working welfare state begin to fall apart, things can start to unravel very quickly. There are plenty of historical examples, especially in small communities along the Norwegian coast.”
The conservative Høyre party of Norway is criticized for cutting welfare funding, but Heidi Nordby Lunde, a Høyre politician, responds to the criticism in the Christian online daily Vårt Land by saying that the realities mean that the government has to prioritize because the system is coming under mounting pressure:
The number of old-age pensioners will triple over the next ten years, and at the same time income from the oil industry will continue to fall. Child birth rates are lower than before, and by 2040 some municipalities will have fewer than two economically active people for each retired person. In addition, one in ten Norwegians receives invalidity benefits, and Norway has the world’s highest sick leave rate. (Lunde, 2019.)
In order for society to be able to stand up for the sick and the frail, “we need to take action, and do so while we still have the scope we need to make moderate changes and preserve sustainable (bærekraftig) welfare” (Lunde, 2019). Norway needs to get ready so that sustainable welfare can be guaranteed (Walnum & Karlsen, 2019). To this end it is imperative that people work closely together (Stokkebø, 2018). The key is to create jobs that will provide the necessary resources for sustainable welfare (Huuse & Wedén, 2016): “If we want to save Norway as a welfare state, we need to change the whole society”, says Solberg in a piece published on vg.no (Haugan, 2019). A sound economy relies on creating more jobs. This will help to make Norway a more secure country (Solberg, 2019).
Welfare has to be protected by industry, technology, and engineering, says a piece in the news section of NITO, Norway’s leading organization for engineers and technology students (NITO, 2020). The main forum for the employers’ organization declares that “business pays for the welfare state” (Moss, 2018). Elsewhere, it is noted that the key to welfare is working life: access to the right kind of professional skills and groups is paramount (Yrkesorganisasjonenes Sentralforbund, 2018). It is suggested that senior citizens should work longer (Ask, 2017), supporting the thought that increased productivity and a productive workforce will finance the WFS (Solberg, 2017; Syversen, 2017).
The triumphs and achievements of the WFS were discussed in 13% of the Norwegian texts, where the WFS was portrayed as a source of national pride: “Norway has been voted the world’s best country to live in for a number of successive years”, announces a commentary regarding the future WFS (Larsen & Skjærpe, 2018). Norway’s successful WFS is based on solidarity and cooperation (Kaltenborn, 2019), and relies on trust and a sense of community (Hauglie, 2019). This is reflected, for instance, in the prevention of crime through “a welfare state which allows for social mobility”, says a piece in Aftenposten (Vestrum, 2020).
A headline in the local paper Tønsbergs Blad calls upon Norwegians to ensure that the country “remains the best country in the world” (Løvaas, 2019). On the government agenda, the foundation for the WFS is the private sector: “When Høyre speaks about a sustainable welfare state, it means sustainable /--/ perhaps most importantly in terms of economic sustainability” (Løvaas, 2019). Reporting on “50 years of the oil adventure”, Aftenposten observes that the sea oil drilling rig Ekofiske’s discovery of oil in late 1969 “was the start of an adventure that has made Norway the richest country in the world, with the best welfare society” (Listhaug, 2019).
The political left is also keen to claim ownership of the development of the Norwegian WFS: on the 100th anniversary of the first major victory for the Labour movement, Labour politician Bjørnar Skjæran says in Folkebladet that he is proud to be part of the people’s movement which “transformed Norway from a poor class-divided country into the world’s best welfare state” (Skjæran, 2019).
Brexit has the potential to pave the way to deepening Nordic cooperation, Aftenposten maintains. If the Nordic countries choose to work more closely with the Baltic countries, Scotland, and Ireland, they could also reach out to Canada, which shares many similarities with the Nordic countries in terms of climate, natural resources, industry, and “high material living standards and a well-built welfare state”. (Galtung & Poleszynski, 2020.)
Sweden
The threat and success stories in the Swedish material entailed overlapping meaning-making categories of saving and protecting the welfare; inequality; changing values; restructuring the WFS; and other (e.g. crime, work culture).
A total of 30% (36/118) of the texts applied the framing of challenges and threats. The main focus was on work and the workforce, often from the point of view that negative developments within the WFS involve greater inequalities among different groups in society. Two ecology professors at Gothenburg University contend in Göteborgsposten that there should be reduced immigration if Sweden intends to maintain welfare standards and that high levels of immigration could lead to increased exclusion in society. However, they also stress that immigration is necessary in order to take care of the ageing population, which is framed as the foremost economic problem for the welfare state/society (Andersson & Götmark, 2020). The share of the working population should be growing, not waning, and there is a growing welfare gap and increasing exclusion among poor pensioners, notes a columnist in the evening paper Expressen (Gröning, 2018). The dependency ratio is thus given great attention also in the Swedish material. Welfare faces “major challenges due to the growing proportion of people approaching their 80th birthday” (Dagens Nyheter, 2019). Analysing the principles of social and health insurance in Svenska Dagbladet, a representative of a private security business speaks of “welfare funding” as the most obvious challenge ahead (Erlandsson, 2019). A letter to the editor by a local women’s group in the Left Party discusses the trajectories in female-dominated occupations, declaring that “the security represented by welfare has disappeared” and that “the quality of care available to people depends on the content of the wallet” (Vänsterpartiets kvinnogrupp i Ronneby, 2020).
Both a politicized value debate and an emphasis on a changing value climate which is diluting welfare are more prevalent in the Swedish media material than in the corpuses of the other three countries. In the online journal Alba, concerned with “culture, science, and society”, a chronicler states that “Everything we’ve become used to in connection with welfare society is now called into question /--/ the collective notion is taken over by individualism” (Wigerfelt, 2020). The good times belong in the past: journalist Malin Siwe writes in SvD that once upon a time there was the impression that the Swedish WFS was “well organized and efficient” (Larsson, 2019). Today, life is organized around freedom of choice under the guidance and direction of venture capitalists, says former editor Lasse Henriksson in Aftonbladet (Henriksson, 2019: “How Swedish welfare was destroyed”). The marketization of welfare society is a threat to its very founding pillars, says Stockholm’s Social Democratic shadow city commissioner in the socially critical ETC magazine (Bjuggren, 2019). Elsewhere, it is observed that “[b]elief in welfare society and democracy is being lost” (Swedin, 2019). There are commentaries about the “economization of welfare society” (SvD, 2016) and the “deconstruction and privatization of welfare society” (Svenning, 2019). To a greater extent than in the other datasets, the Swedish material portrays market forces and capitalism as a threat. Aftonbladet (Karlsson & Redar, 2019) makes the point that growing income differentials are a threat not only to the economy and growth, but also to the way in which “we have chosen to organize Swedish welfare society”. “Swedish welfare” is a phenomenon that is being hollowed out and found to be endangered (Mazetti, 2020; Svensson & Nilimaa, 2018). This welfare, according to the contributor, should be funded from tax revenues “in a smarter way” (Dagens Nyheter, 2020b). The erosion of the WFS is presented as a value choice with a great impact on safety and well-being.
Some 28 texts, or 24% of the Swedish material, frame the WFS as successful or victorious. Here, equal opportunity plays an important role: similarly to the Finnish corpus, the Swedish media sees the WFS as a backdrop that has meant equal opportunities for all people. Social Democrat politician Annelie Karlsson writes in Dagens Nyheter that “the process of building the welfare society has been carried out with the goals of increased equality, solidarity, and universal freedom in mind” (DN, 2020b). There is no doubt that the Nordic Social Democrats are keen to “own” the WFS concept: newly installed as Finland’s Prime Minister, the Social Democrat Sanna Marin says in an interview with Dagens Nyheter that she has the Nordic welfare society to thank for who and where she is today (DN, 2020a).
The Swedish dataset shows that the values of equality and solidarity serve as welfare society’s normative background reference, as in a letter to the editor in Aftonbladet concerning the age limits for accessing personal assistance for those who need help in their homes and daily lives: “when we talk about being able to lead a decent life, age limits are out of place in a welfare society” (Tallberg, 2018). The magazine Världen idag presents a WFS where solidarity has become internalized in the people: “Without people who grew to believe in [the child], the people’s home project [folkhemmet] and social welfare society would hardly have been possible. It took hard-working, loyal people willing to pay high taxes for the welfare of less fortunate citizens.” (Adolfsson, 2019.) This pride in the nature of Swedes as a people reflects an emphasis on a togetherness among people connected through the common project of welfare. The church newspaper Kyrkans Tidning (Dalevi, no date) represents welfare as a project that ties in with Christianity. Free healthcare and maternal and paternal leave are given as examples of Christian phenomena. The Swedish church should understand and affirm its theological roots, and ought to appreciate the way in which these roots are interwoven with the Swedish WFS, the text concludes.
Descriptions of the Nordic model are anchored in the frame of the WFS and its fundamental principles:
The Nordic model, with its strong welfare element, ambitious principles of equality, and the supremacy of high-quality education for all, has created a society that combines vigorous growth and a high degree of social mobility. This has been a contributing reason for Sweden’s welfare historically and it is key to overcoming global competition in the future. (Olovsson, 2015.)
Discussion and conclusions
This study has mapped out snapshot accounts of the notions and contexts in which the welfare state/society figures in contemporary mass media in four Nordic countries. These are the glimpses of significations likely to meet ordinary citizens when they encounter the WFS as a notion and concept in different contexts as they scroll their online news feeds or turn on the TV or the radio.