Is the future of drug policy predictable?

When we think about predicting the future, we often imagine fortune tellers—people surrounded by mystery, acting in ways that are difficult to take seriously. This is because we understand that predicting the future precisely is impossible.

But if predicting the exact future is out of our reach, how can we prepare for what’s coming, especially when facing unknown challenges? While forecasting and preparation are common in areas like national defense and technology, they haven’t been as widely adopted in social sciences until recently. Foresight research is one method that has gained attention for this purpose only in the last few decades.

What is Foresight Research?

Foresight research employs a mix of qualitative and quantitative methods to predict and influence the future. It’s an extensive, collaborative process that aims to collect insights about what’s ahead and develop visions that inform current decisions and inspire collective action. This approach goes beyond simple predictions—it’s about grasping the forces that shape our world, imagining how they might evolve, and spotting unforeseen opportunities and challenges.

At its core, foresight research involves three key activities:

• Thinking: Strategic thinking in order to forecast what the future might hold and raises awareness about upcoming challenges.
• Debating: Through open discussions, it helps build a common understanding of potential futures among stakeholders involved.
• Acting: It’s about turning insights into action by developing strategies that stakeholders can collaborate on.

This type of research is particularly useful in policymaking and strategic planning because it empowers stakeholders to actively shape the future rather than merely reacting to the present. By anticipating potential developments, leaders and decision-makers can design policies and strategies that are resilient and adaptable to future uncertainties.

Tools and methods used in Foresight Research

Foresight research utilizes a diverse range of methodologies—typically five to six per study—customized to fit the unique complexities and needs of each study. In our research, we harnessed several methodologies centered on three key outputs: horizon scanning, trend analysis, and scenario building. Each method uniquely contributes to the prediction of future trends and the formulation of strategic responses.

• Horizon scanning: This method is all about spotting early signals of change across a broad spectrum. Researchers use this tool to identify emerging trends, issues, and opportunities that might significantly impact their area of study. It involves looking beyond an organization’s immediate field to understand broader societal shifts, drawing on both academic research and less formal “gray” literature.
• Trend analysis: Once trends are identified, trend analysis helps categorize these insights to understand dominant social patterns and their potential impacts. This step is crucial for spotting both weak signals that might become more relevant over time and strong, established trends that are shaping the current landscape. Trend analysis is conducted meticulously, often involving both the researchers’ own analyses and insights from expert panels.
• Scenario building: Using the information gathered, scenario building explores different potential futures. This method is structured to help stakeholders envision various outcomes and develop strategies that effectively address potential future scenarios. It’s a way of converting analysis into actionable strategies, ensuring that plans are robust and adaptable to different possible futures.

These tools collectively enable foresight practitioners to not only predict future changes but also actively participate in shaping those futures, making them indispensable in strategic planning and policy development.

Application of Foresight Tools

In the context of drug policy in Finland, we applied these tools within a structured process. Horizon scanning was used to gather data from a wide range of sources, including government publications, academic research, and mass media, which was analyzed using the STEEP framework (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, and Political factors). Trend analysis helped in organizing this information and assessing the impacts on drug policy. Initially, we performed this stage as authors, subsequently validating and reevaluating it with an expert panel. The results informed scenario-building exercises, during which multiple potential futures were crafted and explored through collaboration with expert panels three months later. This approach ensures that policies are adaptable and responsive to potential future developments​​​​.

Findings from Foresight Research in Finland

Our research has revealed several significant trends and strategic recommendations. We’ve noted a shifting societal attitude towards drugs, where there is increasing acceptance in some areas. This necessitates new approaches in policy and education to effectively address these changing perspectives. Additionally, the economic impact of drug-related health costs is rising, highlighting the need for economic evaluations and cost-effective health interventions.

Another key finding is the rise in synthetic and prescription drug use, which calls for updated regulatory frameworks and enhanced monitoring systems. With drug transactions increasingly moving online and new drug treatment and harm reduction technologies emerging, it’s crucial for policies to adapt to these digital and technological shifts.

Based on these insights, our study suggests several strategies. For example, as societal attitudes and illicit drug use evolve, targeted educational programs that reflect current trends could be beneficial. Furthermore, the healthcare system needs to become more inclusive, improving accessibility and reducing stigma to better serve people who use drugs. Regarding the diversification of the drug market, strategic approaches are necessary to ensure community safety and manage the complexity of new drug types and production methods.

The scenario building process has led to actionable strategies focused on reducing drug demand among youth through enhanced preventive education and community engagement, improving healthcare services with innovations in treatment and broader access to care, and diversifying approaches to drug sale and production to better manage and adapt to the changing landscape.

By integrating foresight methodologies, policymakers can more effectively anticipate and adapt to future challenges, ensuring that strategies are robust, adaptable, and aligned with potential future states. This forward-thinking approach not only highlights emerging trends but also facilitates the development of proactive measures to navigate and shape the future of drug policy.

The article is written by

Ali Ünlü, PhD

Senior researcher

The Alcohol, Drugs and Addictions Unit

Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare (THL)

on the request of PopNAD